If you own a private property and are eyeing a resale HDB flat, you've probably heard of the 15-month wait-out period (if you're not familiar, don't worry, I'll explain everything in a sec). This cooling measure was introduced in September 2022 to ease demand in the HDB resale market. As it is finally stabilising, there are talks that the 15-month rule might be reviewed.

So, what does this all mean for private property owners? Let's dive right into it.

Basically, this rule states that private property owners must wait 15 months after selling their property before they can buy a non-subsidised HDB resale flat. However, this rule doesn't apply to seniors aged 55 and above (and their spouses, of course) who are buying a 4-room or smaller flat, essentially to accommodate those who want to rightsize and retire.

Obviously, the main reason is to cool the rising HDB resale prices.

Prior to the rule, the number of private property owners buying HDB resale flats doubled within three years. Naturally, resale prices went up and had even climbed for the 10th consecutive quarter in Q3 2022, with many million-dollar flats transacted. Many of these buyers were likely those hoping for a quick profit and enticed by HDB's fixed interest rate to right-size to a HDB resale flat.

But the bigger issue was that private homeowners were outbidding and making homes less affordable for other buyers, especially first-timers and upgraders. So the government had to do something to level the playing field and moderate the excessive demand, which they hoped could cool down the resale market.

Since the rule kicked in, HDB resale price growth has slowed. In fact, it only increased by 4.9% in 2023, which was the smallest increase since 2019. For comparison, the growth was 10.4% in 2022 and 12.7% in 2021. On top of that, transaction volumes had also fallen by 4.2%. About 26,735 resale flats were sold in 2023, down from 27,896 in 2022.

Source: PropNex Research, HDB, Data.gov.sg (Q4 2023 till 30 Nov)

The large Sale of Balance Flats exercise in February 2025 likely also played a role in easing the pressure since it offers more options to homebuyers. Regardless, the number of million-dollar flat transactions still went up, though not by too much. There were 470 such transactions in 2023, more than the 369 in the previous year.

The 15-month wait-out rule also pushed many private property owners into renting out their units since they were more reluctant to sell. This, in turn, drove up demand and rents for larger HDB flats and mass-market condos. On top of that, many of those who chose to sell anyway had to rent a temporary home, pushing rental prices even higher.

Overall, the market did cool down, but it's hard to say how much of that was due to the 15-month wait-out rule versus other factors like higher interest rates and tightened loan limits. Most likely, it was a combination of all those things.

Recent data suggests that the HDB resale market is indeed showing signs of easing. In Q4 2024, resale price growth saw a 2.6% increase QoQ. But by the first quarter of this year, it eased to 1.6% QoQ, which is the slowest it's been since Q4 2023. And, it is expected to continue growing at a slower pace this year.

Plus, with more flats hitting their 5-year Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) starting next year, as well as new BTO flats entering the market (about 19,600 flats launched this year), we can expect to see resale prices moderating even more.

With signals that the HDB resale market might be shifting back into balance, there were whispers that the 15-month wait-out rule may be lifted. Minister for National Development, Chee Hong Tat, has said that the rule was meant to be temporary in the first place, to address concerns surrounding high resale flat prices. So now that the situation is improving, the government is considering reviewing or even removing the restriction.

On the other hand, private home prices have already moderated in recent months, and growth is expected to remain modest for the rest of the year. Lifting the 15-month wait-out rule now could further cool demand in the private sector, an outcome the government may not be aiming for at this stage.

So it's unclear whether the government will lift the 15-month rule any time soon if at all. It is still possible, yes, but perhaps they might wait until the market has had some time to adjust to the higher supply starting from next year.

For one thing, there would likely be a rise in demand for resale HDB flats, especially from private property owners who've been holding off on downgrading due to the 15-month rule. This renewed demand could put upward pressure on HDB resale prices, particularly for larger units with good attributes (high floors, good views, proximity to MRT stations) in more central locations. These "better" homes are the ones most likely to see sharper price increases, and some may even cross the million-dollar threshold. Subsequently, there is a potential surge of million-dollar flats as well.

At the same time, as more private homeowners sell their condos to make the switch, we may see an increase in condo listings on the resale market. That could lead to softer condo prices in the short term.

But it's not just the buying and selling markets that could shift, rental demand may ease as well. As I've mentioned, many private homeowners have no choice but to rent after selling their properties, while they count down the 15 months before they can buy a resale flat. If the rule is lifted, they could move straight into resale flats instead, which may reduce rental demand and soften rent prices.

In any case, lifting the 15-month rule won't imply speculative property investment since it mainly benefits private downgraders, especially those who are cash-tight and in need of a replacement home asap. Plus, housing policies will continue to evolve to keep the market stable. If HDB resale demand surges again, the rule could be reinstated in some form, or be replaced with a different measure, depending on how things unfold in the future.

If you're a private property owner under 55 years old looking to invest, here are some things to consider while the 15-month wait is still in place:

1. Rethink your strategy

What's your end goal? Is it rental yield? Capital appreciation? In either case, a resale HDB flat may not be your only (or even the best) option. Especially if you're waiting around 15 months just to re-enter the market. Your funds are sitting around, not earning returns and not growing in value, when there might be better opportunities elsewhere. That brings us to the next point.

2. Explore other property options

Look into Executive Condominiums (ECs), private resale, even commercial properties in different areas. I'm sure there are many options that you can look into that are still within your budget, all without the wait.

The 15-month wait-out rule was a timely move by the government to take some heat out of the HDB resale market. And while the market has eased since it was instated, it's hard to say how much of that can be directly credited to the rule, given other factors like interest rates and loan curbs. Still, private property owners who want to rightsize or invest in public housing might find this rule troublesome to say the least.

However, as we are seeing signs that the market is finally moderating, the government may soon review this rule. Of course, if you're not ready to buy, you can wait and see what happens. But if you are, I wouldn't recommend waiting around for the rule to be lifted. By the time the government reviews and actually removes the 15-month wait-out period (if they do at all), 15 months might have passed anyway.

We'll never know exactly when policies will shift until it actually happens. So, rather than wait around, it may be better to act on what's within your control. At the end of the day, the best thing you can do is to stay informed and plan ahead.

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